Novice horseplayers often get frustrated trying to make sense of all the numbers available to them. Race tracks have for sale at the entrance several tip sheets and past performance rags. The tip sheets usually offer an expert’s top three picks in each race and sometimes include that expert’s comments. Past performance rags provide details about each horse’s recent races, along with expert opinions. This writer has bought tip sheets in the past but now avoids them. Picking three horses in a race gives the tipster three chances to brag about winning picks, but it really does not help the bettor. Besides, naming three possible winners does not count as working for a living.
This writer uses The Daily Racing Form, mostly out of habit, but readers may use any rag that provides the horses’ running positions throughout the race. That allows the novice (or expert, for that matter) to calculate each horse’s speed points. When it comes to simple, speed points fit the bill, and when it comes to powerful, speed points fit that description as well.
CALCULATING SPEED POINTS
To begin, assign each horse one point. Then look at the five most recent races in the past performances. Three of those races will contribute to the calculation. Horses earn speed points depending upon their position and beaten lengths at the first call of their races.
The Rules for Sprints
Award one point for each race that the horse has been either first, second, or third at the first call and award one point for each race that the horse was within two lengths of the leader at the first call. Award zero points for any other sprint performance. Award zero points for any route performance, unless the horse was within one length of the leader at the first call, in which case do not rate that race.
Seven Furlongs Exception - Only award the one point for position if the horse led the race at the first call.
The Rules for Routes
Award one point for each race that the horse has been either first, second, or third at the first call and award one point for each race that the horse was within three lengths of the leader at the first call. Award zero points for any other route performance.
Sprints Exception - Award one point for each race that the horse has been either first, second or third at the first call and award one point for each race that the horse was within five lengths of the leader at the first call.
At this point each horse will have earned a rating between one and seven Speed Points.
Bonus Point - Horses having seven speed points earn a bonus point if they have been within a neck of the leader in each of their rated races.
Loss of Original Point - Horses having one point lose that point if they failed to beat half the field at the first call in each of their rated races.
THE METHOD
Handicappers should consider each horse having five or more speed points and having two points higher than any other horse. These horses have a definite early-speed advantage and many of them will lead wire to wire. Alternatively, handicappers can add the speed points for all the horses in the race and then divide that sum into the points for the highest rated horse. Consider any horse having thirty percent or more of the race’s speed points.
Novice horse race handicappers will quickly find new and unique ways to use Speed Points. This writer has found them very effective and useful for evaluating track bias and then using that evaluation to make and hit exotic bets.